In my Republican Debate Wrap-Up on Friday, I said the following about Donald Trump's performance:
To quote the New Yorker, Donald Trump was more heinous than previously thought. He defended himself, at all times, by lashing out at others. This made him hugely entertaining, despite the layers of misogyny and incoherence. Republican operative reactions, after the debate, were that he was terrible. I suspect the base loved it. His answers were utterly incoherent. I suspect the base loved that too. [Emphasis added today]Horrifyingly, that initial reaction has been confirmed by today's polls. To rational observers, Donald Trump had the worst performance of any candidate in the Varsity Debate. His answers were all insulting, mostly non-sequiturs, and generally indecipherable. He actively insulted Megyn Kelly, a popular host on a popular network with Republicans. He refused to commit to support the party's eventual nominee.
Trump's situation seemed to degrade after the debate, when on Friday he continued insulting Kelly, and implied that her tough questioning was motivated by hormones. Just like after "the Mexicans, the rapists", just like after Trump's insults to John McCain and POWs , national pundits speculated that Trump's poor debate performance and misogynistic comments would end his campaign.
These pundits misunderestimated* Trump's appeal to his base.
Trump's style of snappy, irrelevant come-backs may be appealing to an audience that isn't critically thinking about the debate. He lacks any cogent policy position, but he knows how to insult Rosie O'Donnell!
*Ok, "misunderestimate" isn't actually in that video, but it contains too many classics to avoid sharing it.
Other Movers
Look closely at the plot of polling numbers, in the link at the top. Most candidates' numbers stayed flat, or decreased, over the time period depicted. The biggest gainer, other than Trump, is Ben Carson. Carson was among the most Googled candidates during the debate, and he began the night with nearly the lowest Name ID (John Kasich was lower). I thought that Carson had a bad showing at the debate, offering quiet, non-specific answers to questions. He had a memorable closing statement, but otherwise I figured he'd be eclipsed by some of the serious candidates on-stage. The exposure Carson gained, here, must have outweighed his middling performance. Like Trump, he's an outsider with a populist message. While it's hard to characterize Trump according to the Four Faces, Carson is obviously in the Very Conservative, Evangelical camp. These outsider/populist candidates may be creating sub-factions of each of the classical Republican groups, where each group has an Establishment candidate and a Populist candidate.
If that theme holds, then Carly Fiorina will be the Populist-Very Conservative, Secular candidate. She was the other candidate to gain a measurable amount of support after the debate. She was clearly the best at the Kid's Table, and was more impressive than several of the Varsity debaters. Just like Trump and Carson, Fiorina has no political experience.
Jeb Bush has been consistently fading, though by only 1 point per week. Scott Walker lost a bit more than Bush, and the rest of the field remained pretty flat. Trump's Bump seems to have been pulled pretty equally from across the primary.
What's Important
We'll continue tracking this potential theme of splitting the Four Faces into eight, with Establishment and Populist candidates for each. There is obviously a (large) segment of the Republican party that is represented in these polls, but ignored among the chattering class. It's meaningful that virtually all of the increases in support, after the debate, went to these Populist candidates. 44% of the vote, in that poll, belongs to the combo of Trump, Carson, and Fiorina. With three of the four "Faces" covered, it seems like there'd be an opportunity for a Populist-Liberal candidate.
Oh, wait, that's Bernie Sanders.
No comments:
Post a Comment