The Four Faces of the Republican Primary

Anyone who wants to understand Republican primary politics needs to read this article, by Henry Olsen. Rather than framing the primary as a struggle between the establishment and the base/insurgents/Tea Party, this more nuanced view compares four distinct sets of voters:

• Moderate or liberal voters
• Somewhat conservative voters
• Very conservative, evangelical voters
• Very conservative, secular voters

Republican primary voters are spread unequally among these four categories. While the very conservative, secular voters represent the smallest group, their money and lobbying make them a big influence on the party platform. Other groups, though, tend to drive the decision on the nomination.

Let's walk through each category, and assign candidates to them. What can we draw from breaking down the race this way? Let's use FiveThirtyEight's similar Five Ring Circus diagram for help:

Moderate or liberal candidates

Jeb Bush, John Kasich, Chris Christie, George Pataki

I expected to struggle differentiating this group from the "somewhat conservatives"; other than Bush, it was pretty easy. These guys are demonstrably more liberal than the somewhats. "Demonstrably more liberal", in the Republican party, means that they've got one or two issues where they hold center-left positions (that's why I decided to put Bush here). These issues mostly include Medicaid expansion, immigration, gay rights, or the environment. 

Note, here, the first hint of influence from the "very conservative, secular" constituency. All of those moderate policies are important, but you'll never find one of these moderates who espouses higher taxes on the wealthy, despite the balanced-budget dream that's at the core of their economic messages.

If this election cycle plays out like 2012, either Kasich or Christie will get a ton of love from the media, moderate Republicans, and some Democrats. I'd put my money on Kasich, solely because of Christie's Bridgeghazi scandal. This is similar to the trajectory of John Huntsman in 2012, but he failed pretty early in the campaign. Huntsman's voters mostly went over to Romney in 2012, and it's easy to see the Kasich/Christie voters settling for Bush in this cycle.

Somewhat conservative candidates

Marco Rubio, Donald Trump, Rand Paul, Lindsey Graham, Jim Gilmore

The favored candidate of somewhat conservative voters always wins the nomination, though they sometimes choose a candidate who'd also slot into the moderate/liberal wing. From the article:

These voters’ preferred candidate profile can be inferred from the characteristics of their favored candidates: Bob Dole in 1996, George W. Bush in 2000, John McCain in 2008 and Mitt Romney in 2012. They like even-keeled men with substantial governing experience. 

Among my 'somewhat conservatives', Rubio most closely fits the profile of past winners, from a policy perspective. If you roll in Jeb Bush, Kasich, and Christie, it becomes a much muddier picture. Viewed this way, Trump and Paul are clearly irrelevant to the nomination race. Graham and Gilmore have no discernible support, and I'll probably never discuss them again.

Very conservative, evangelical candidates

Mike Huckabee, Ben Carson, Bobby Jindal, Rick Santorum

Welcome to the Right Wing. It's scary in here. These candidates prioritize a Bible-based worldview over almost all other considerations, provided that you ignore the parts of the Bible that say you should take care of the poor. They must be too busy for that part, I guess. Ben Carson, on Meet the Press, failed to answer the question, "Does the Bible have authority over the Constitution?"

This category of voters makes up about 20% of GOP voters, but they're organized, and they're loud. While these characteristics force candidates in other categories to address their priorities verbally, their favored candidates never win anything in the Presidential race. This group does have a tendency to back the runner-up:

The evangelical favorite, for example, surprised pundits by winning Iowa in 2008 and 2012, and supplied the backing for second-place Iowa finishers Pat Robertson in 1988 and Pat Buchanan in 1996. Their strength in the Deep South and the border states also allowed Mike Huckabee rather than Mitt Romney to emerge as John McCain’s final challenger in 2008, and that strength combined with their domination of the February 7 caucuses in Minnesota and Colorado allowed Rick Santorum to emerge as Romney’s challenger in 2012.

You'll hear a lot about this group in the lead-up to, and recovery from, the Iowa caucuses. Their preferred candidate may even win Iowa. One barrier to that outcome is the profusion of choices in this category this year. Ben Carson and Mike Huckabee have been polling well so far, but Santorum is an old favorite, and Jindal will say anything to garner votes. Whoever emerges from this scrum, you can be confident he won't win the nomination.

Very conservative, secular candidates

Scott Walker, Ted Cruz, Carly Fiorina, Rick Perry

This is the smallest group of Republican voters, but they back some prominent candidates. Some might argue that Trump fits in this category, since he's a rich, political outsider (like Steve Forbes, Jack Kemp, and others). His policy history, such as it is, doesn't appear to support this categorization. The candidates here are different than those of the past, though, as none seem to have a purely low-taxes and small government message. Scott Walker's propensity to wade into culture wars unnerves these voters, as they feel it's a distraction from their economic priorities. Ted Cruz brings xenophobia to the table, which is starkly counter to the Chamber of Commerce's message. 

Carly Fiorina may be the wildcard here. BallotPedia rates here as a center-right candidate, but her history is so sparse that I suspect their assessment will change when the sample size grows. So far she's presented herself as a pro-business, anti-Hillary, candidate, and I think that could appeal to this group. Ultimately, very conservative, secular voters will back whomever isn't the Evangelical candidate.

Aside

What happened to the Tea Party? You used to hear a lot about their preferences as a bloc, but perhaps they've been fragmented by the huge field? It's also possible that Sarah Palin dragged the group out of prominence when she descended to insanity. We'll see if they resurface once the main contenders come into focus.

Summary

Hopefully the Four Faces article serves as a useful lens through which to view this primary. You can take the long view, and realize that while many candidates will make a splash, they ultimately need to appeal to both the moderates and the somewhat-conservatives.